Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Projecting the spread of Zika virus in the Americas.


Projecting the spread of Zika virus in the Americas: Three scenarios. (ZikaModel). HT: Crof.

Zika Model displays a map of the Americas (the US is not yet active on it), and when you click on a country you get a range of estimates for the number of possible cases of both Zika and microcephaly. 
The "reference scenario" assumes both Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are competent vectors, and offers mid-range estimates based on the literature. The "aegypti scenario" assumes only Ae. aegypti is a competent vectors and again offers mid-range estimates. The "sensitivity analysis" scenario assumes both species are competent vectors and explores "the longest and shortest serial interval allowed by the range of parameters reported in the literature."
Click on Haiti, for example, and you find that the reference scenario projects a Zika attack rate of 46.8% by the end of 2016. Microcephaly cases by then could range from 294 to 1,399.
The site still doesn't include Cuba or the US, but I expect it will get a great deal of traffic when it does. In the meantime, I'm putting a permanent link to it in the Chikungunya, Dengue, Zika Resources list.
"Projections of Zika virus local transmission in the Continental US"

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Elderly Indian couple from lowest caste hacked to death over 22-cent outstanding grocery debt.


Elderly Indian couple from lowest caste hacked to death over 22-cent outstanding grocery debt. (ET).

NEW DELHI: An axe-wielding shopkeeper hacked a couple to death in northern India on Thursday after they failed to pay a debt of 22 US cents, police said.

The middle-aged couple from the lowest Dalit caste in Uttar Pradesh state were on their way to work early on Thursday when the grocery store owner asked them to pay their 15-rupee (22-cent) debt.

“The shopkeeper demanded money but they pleaded to be able to pay it later. He became enraged and attacked them with an axe,” Arun Kumar, the investigating officer in Mainpuri district, told AFP.

The officer said the couple had bought goods from the shop last week with a promise to pay the 60-year-old owner within a few days. “Their refusal to pay made him angry and he killed them,” Kumar said.

The owner was arrested soon after the incident and the murder weapon recovered, the officer said. Hundreds of people are murdered in India each year over sudden provocations, often trivialities.

In 2014, almost 15 per cent of the murders in New Delhi were unmotivated, according to police, and were mostly committed by non-criminals acting in a fit of rage.

More than 33,000 people were murdered in India in 2014, according to latest figures released by national criminal records bureau.

Video - Iranian Def Min Dehghan Criticizes Russia for Reporting Its Use of Iranian Airbase for Strikes in Syria: It Was Inappropriate.



Abubakar Shekau Gravely Wounded, Other Boko Haram Commanders Killed, Nigerian Army Claims.


Abubakar Shekau Gravely Wounded, Other Boko Haram Commanders Killed, Nigerian Army Claims. (Saharareporters).

The Nigerian Army has claimed that Abubakar Shekau, a factional leader of Islamist insurgent group, Boko Haram, was “fatally wounded” in an air attack carried out by the Nigerian Air Force.

In a statement released late yesterday, Army spokesman, Colonel Sani Kukasheka Usman, said Mr. Shekau was wounded in an “unprecedented and spectacular air raid,” adding, “some key leaders of the Boko Haram terrorists have been killed while others were fatally wounded.”

“The air raid took place last week Friday 19th August 2016, while the terrorists were performing Friday rituals at Taye village, Gombale general area within Sambisa forest, Borno State,” Colonel Usman stated.

He added that the confirmed casualties among the Boko Haram commanders included Abubakar Mubi, Malam Nuhu and Malam Hamman.

The military spokesman added that the Islamist group’s “leader, [the] so-called ‘Abubakar Shekau,’ is believed to be fatally wounded on his shoulders.”


SaharaReporters was unable to reach Colonel Usman to clarify what he meant by “fatally wounded,” since the phrase is confusing.

Monday, August 22, 2016

Video - Erdogan's son Bilal grinning while his father comments on Gaziantep suicide attack.

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