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Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Projecting the spread of Zika virus in the Americas.

Projecting the spread of Zika virus in the Americas: Three scenarios. (ZikaModel). HT: Crof.

Zika Model displays a map of the Americas (the US is not yet active on it), and when you click on a country you get a range of estimates for the number of possible cases of both Zika and microcephaly. 
The "reference scenario" assumes both Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are competent vectors, and offers mid-range estimates based on the literature. The "aegypti scenario" assumes only Ae. aegypti is a competent vectors and again offers mid-range estimates. The "sensitivity analysis" scenario assumes both species are competent vectors and explores "the longest and shortest serial interval allowed by the range of parameters reported in the literature."
Click on Haiti, for example, and you find that the reference scenario projects a Zika attack rate of 46.8% by the end of 2016. Microcephaly cases by then could range from 294 to 1,399.
The site still doesn't include Cuba or the US, but I expect it will get a great deal of traffic when it does. In the meantime, I'm putting a permanent link to it in the Chikungunya, Dengue, Zika Resources list.
"Projections of Zika virus local transmission in the Continental US"

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