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Thursday, July 30, 2015

Iran Nuclear Deal: Who are the Winners and Losers in this 'Deal'?

Iran Nuclear Deal: Who are the Winners and Losers in this 'Deal'? (Aawsat).By Amir Taheri.

We are still a long way before the “deal” on Iran’s nuclear program becomes reality, if ever.

However, even if it doesn’t, the process has already produced potential winners and losers.

The initial deal, known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has no legal authority because no one has signed it. Nevertheless, the resolution passed by the United Nations Security Council last week, the seventh on the subject, might be regarded as providing the JCPOA with a measure of legality. As a sponsor of the resolution, the US voted for it and is thus committed to it. Iran, not a member of the Security Council, did not have to vote and has not accepted it yet.

Accepting the new resolution won’t be easy because it is based on six previous resolutions Iran has rejected.

Last Saturday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif hinted that the Islamic Republic may not be able to accept the new resolution, in which case a thick fog would be cast over the whole issue.

The text of JCPOA makes it clear that its content is not identical with the contents of [UN Security Council] Resolution 2231,” Zarif said. “By mixing the two, [US Secretary of State] John Kerry is fomenting confusion.”

For Iran to accept the new resolution, thus giving the JCPOA legal basis, the text must first be approved by the Council of Ministers.

It is then submitted to the High Council of National Defense.

If approved there, the text goes to the Islamic Majlis. If approved by the Majlis, it goes to the Council of the Custodians of the Constitution.

Finally, the text will be submitted to “Supreme Guide” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is not obliged to specifically endorse it and could cancel it at any time with a State Order (Hukm Al-Hokumi).

The only document signed by Iran in Vienna is what Yukiya Amano, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), calls a “roadmap” to address the IAEA’s concerns about the military dimensions of the Iranian program with a view to issuing a report. (The text remains secret!)

But even that signature means little.

In the past 12 years, Iran has signed such documents on three occasions, each time reneging on them.

In any case, a “roadmap” does not tell one where to go, at what speed, and by which means of transportation—or whether to start a journey in the first place. A “roadmap” does not deprive you of circumventing some points or even making U-turns. Now read who are the Winners and loosers here.

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