Analyst says Trump won’t cancel Iranian nuclear deal but may renew sanctions. (Tass).
US president-elect, Donald Trump, will not cancel the deal concluded over the Iranian nuclear program when he takes office, but he may resume sanctions against Tehran, the science doyen of the Institute of US and Canada Studies, Sergey Rogov, said on Tuesday.
"Trump described the deal with Iran as the worst-ever in history. He claimed that Tehran might resume its nuclear program and that the terms of the agreement did not prohibit it from working on missile technologies," Rogov recalled. "No country in the world makes inter-continental ballistic missiles without nuclear warheads."
Trump may find it rather hard to sever the deal, Rogov believes.
"Neither Russia, nor China, nor the three European countries concerned will agree to abrogating the agreement without sufficient reasons," he said. "If the next US president will eventually dare take such a step, the Congress will be the first to laud it. But the relations with both Europe and China will turn for the worse."
Rogov sees another likely scenario - prolongation of the anti-Iranian sanctions by another ten years.
"This is most likely to happen," he speculates. "Congress may do this job for the White House and the deal will be disrupted in this way."
The question arises, therefore, Rogov said why Tehran should observe the terms of the agreement. "Elections in Iran are due soon. If (the current president, Hassan) Rouhani loses, there will emerge a chance to provoke Iran into quitting the agreement," he said. "This tactic may work," Rogov believes. "This is precisely the tactic Trump is likely to follow, bearing in mind that it will enjoy bipartisan support in Congress." Read the full story here.